Friday is the day of reckoning for the Serie A heavyweights, when Lazio and Milan clash at the Stadio Olimpico. For the host team, this could be their last chance to stay in a top-four race, while the visitors try to find a way out of a minor problem.
After a devastating 2-1 defeat at Fiorentina on Monday, Lazio’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are over. Maurizio Sarri’s team are eight points behind fourth-placed Bologna and cannot afford a slip-up in this high-profile fixture. But this is not the only reason.
Lazio will return to Champions League play next week to defend a 1-0 first-leg lead in their last-16 match against Bayern Munich. Beating one of their oldest foes would prepare them well for their forthcoming trip to Germany. However, their recent form does not inspire much confidence.
Sarri’s team has alternated between winning and losing in their past five league games (W2, L3). That’s one of the reasons they started this round outside of the European spots. Visiting Milan may be in a better position for this matchday, but the situation is far from perfect.
Despite having 68% ball possession and completely outplaying Atalanta, Stefano Pioli’s team had to settle for a 1-1 draw at home last weekend. That was their second consecutive Serie A match without a win, following an ugly 4-2 defeat at Monza.
With seven points separating them from fifth-placed Atalanta and only five from Bologna, now is not the time to shed any more points. However, Milan has gone winless in their past three competitive games (D1, L2), putting doubt on their ability to revenge a 4-0 defeat in this identical encounter in 2023/24.
Match Preview
Lazio
In their most recent home league match, Lazio squandered an early lead against Bologna, losing 2-1. That result was a rare setback in Bianconcelesti’s usually stellar record at the Stadio Olimpico, where they have won 11 of their last 15 home matches in all competitions.
That could boost Lazio’s spirits as they attempt to win consecutive home league games against Milan for the first time in almost a decade. Keeping things clean at the back would greatly increase such prospects, given that four of Lazio’s six home league victories this season have ended ‘to nil.’
Conceding first, on the other hand, would jeopardise their chances of winning again, since they have lost six of their last seven Serie A games after falling behind this season.
Milan
Milan’s recent road play has stalled, going from a five-game unbeaten streak (W4, D1) to consecutive defeats. Both losses saw them succumb at least three times, a trait that Pioli’s team has grown to be known for. Leaking goals at an alarming rate on the road has begun to irritate San Siro fans.
To put this into context, Milan has conceded two or more goals in nine of their past eleven away games across all competitions. That is a frightening trend for a club of this size, and it is on to Pioli to stop the bleeding. Rossoneri’s carefree demeanour, on the other hand, has entertained neutrals.
Those 11 games had an average of 4.3 goals per match, indicating the possibility of an exciting contest. Milan will likely agree, given that they have scored two or more goals in their last ten competitive games.
Team News
Sarri will have no excuse this time if Lazio suffers another poor result. His whole squad is fit and ready, with just second-string midfielder Nicolo Rovella under consideration.
Milan’s long-running injury issue has ended, leaving Tommaso Pobega as the only first-team absentee. Luka Jovic is out after receiving a red card against Monza, but Fikayo Tomori has returned to the lineup after a lengthy absence in the medical room.
Lazio versus Milan Lazio (4-3-3): Ivan Provedel, Manuel Lazzari, Nicolo Casale, Alessio Romagnoli, Elseid Hysaj; Matteo Guendouzi, Danilo Cataldi, Luis Alberto; Gustav Isaksen, Ciro Immobile, and Felipe Anderson.
Milan (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Alessandro Florenzi, Malick Thiaw, Matteo Gabbia, Theo Hernandez; Tijjani Reijnders, Ismael Bennacer; Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud.
Lazio versus Milan Prediction
Lazio’s previous home performances have been deceptive, and while Milan is not playing at their best, we anticipate them to score three points.
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